The Skinny | GLP-1s History & Outlook to 2030

Date

August 22, 2025

Date

August 22, 2025

Date

August 22, 2025

By Caroline Kovacs

Executive Summary

GLP-1 drugs have transformed from a quirky discovery in lizard venom to one of the biggest revolutions in modern medicine, projected to potentially top US $150 billion in annual sales by 2030. What began as a treatment for diabetes is now reshaping obesity care, fueling unprecedented revenue growth for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, while triggering ripple effects across healthcare budgets, food industries, and even cultural attitudes toward weight and wellness.

But this story is just beginning. Next-generation therapies—oral pills, lean-muscle-preserving combinations, and potential uses in areas like addiction and fertility—are expanding GLP-1s beyond “weight-loss injections” into a multi-disease, lifestyle-shaping franchise. For investors, policymakers, and industry leaders, the stakes are high: pricing pressure, policy volatility, and disruptive new entrants will decide who thrives in the next wave of this market transformation.

The Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (TSX: HHL) provides exposure to a portfolio of large-cap US healthcare leaders. Two of the holdings in HHL are making strides in the development of the GLP-1 drug class:

AstraZeneca: In 2023, AstraZeneca and Eccogene entered into an exclusive license agreement for ECC5004. This investigational oral once-daily GLP-1 receptor agonist is being used for the treatment of obesity, type-2 diabetes, and other cardiometabolic conditions. On June 18, 2025, Eccogene announced that the first patient had been dosed in the Phase 1b clinical trial of AZD5004/ECC5004 in China.

Eli Lilly: The company has hiked its 2025 guidance after posting second-quarter earnings that demonstrated the strong demand for its weight loss and diabetes drugs. Eli Lilly’s diabetes treatment Mounjaro pulled in nearly US$5.2 billion in revenue – up 68% over the prior year. Meanwhile, its weight loss drugs Zepbound booked US$3.38 billion in sales – surging 172% compared to Q2 2024. Zepbound and Mounjaro accounted for more than half of the company’s total revenue. Moreover, orforglipron, Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1, delivered weight loss of up to an average of 27.3 pounds in the first of two Phase 3 trials in adults that was reported on August 2025.

Investors can also access the majority of the upside in Eli Lilly stock and higher monthly income with the Harvest Eli Lilly Enhanced High Income Shares ETF (TSX: LLHE). LLHE invests all its assets in shares of Eli Lilly. It overlays an active covered call writing strategy and employs modest leverage to generate high levels of monthly income and provide exposure to the Eli Lilly’s growth potential.

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Disclaimer

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