Monthly ETF Commentary

November 2025

The broader United States market posted all-time highs yet again in the month of October, with Technology (tech) continuing its leadership (up more than 6%). Notwithstanding, the mega-cap tech and artificial intelligence (AI) leaders did not tell the whole story.

Healthcare, which had been a laggard stretching back to the early spring, was the second-best performer in October. The sector was propelled by solid earnings and early signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, some cyclicals stick and select regional banks fell.

Broadening market participation

Market breadth has widened, albeit quietly. While mega-cap tech may be setting the rhythm in this market more names are joining the fray.

Industrials have stood out in this climate. Caterpillar, a holding in the Harvest Brand Leaders Plus Income ETF (TSX: HBF), and Harvest Industrial Leaders Income ETF (TSX: HIND), has stood out as a beneficiary of the AI boom and reshoring trends. Further, within HIND, names like Ametek and General Electric sustained strong momentum year-to-date in 2025, showing more evidence of breadth.

Leadership has remained heavily concentrated in the tech space. As a result, various equal weighted tech indexes have performed well below their market cap weighted peers. We are monitoring for signs of breadth expanding into other areas of tech, which may narrow the very wide valuation gap.

Broader market participation is healthy. Staying invested with a barbell approach, which we will touch on next, aims to capture upside while managing concentration risk.

Barbell investing in 2025

In October, we released a piece on the barbell strategy: Growth, Defence, & Monthly Income: The Barbell Harvest ETFs Strategy. A barbell investing strategy targets growth-focused investment on one end, which we highlighted in the form of the tech and growth exposure in the Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF (TSX: HTA) and the Harvest Diversified High Income Shares ETF (TSX: HHIS), as well as access to the Bitcoin ecosystem through the Harvest Bitcoin Leaders Enhanced Income ETF (CBOE: HBTE).

On the other end of the barbell, we focused on defensive income positions like the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (TSX: HHL), the Harvest Equal Weight Global Utilities Income ETF (TSX: HUTL), and our low volatility ETF, the Harvest Low Volatility Canadian Equity Income ETF (TSX: HVOI).

The general message: Investors can rethink making a choice between growth, defence, or income. Positioning both ends allows participation in the upside while collecting cash flow and getting a smoother investment ride.

Monetary policy and the yield curve

The US Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) and the Bank of Canada delivered another round of 25 basis point cuts in the month of October. Long yield remained sticky despite easing by the Fed. Meanwhile, inflation uncertainty continues to linger.

Longer-duration bonds like those in the Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (TSX: HPYT) have been volatile in the month-over-month period. However, the implied volatility, which is what option premiums are priced on, has been near five-year lows. This is an unusual backdrop given the macro noise.

Mid-duration exposures in the Harvest Premium Yield 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (TSX: HPYM) have sidestepped that same volatility, but premiums tended to be lower.

Cash alternatives remain valuable in a bond barbell for those holding cash, as they help to rebalance portfolios. The Harvest Canadian T-Bill ETF (TSX: TBIL) is a high-quality parking spot for those who desire a low-risk cash vehicle that pays competitive interest income.

Looking ahead

Looking forward, we await the return of US macro data when the shutdown south of the border eventually concludes. This will provide more economic visibility as we look for signs of breadth expansion. Investors should view potential pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.

Our view remains clear: A buy-the-dip bias, diversification is key, and a barbell strategy can serve as the anchor as we approach the New Year.

Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF

Healthcare finally showed some life in October. HHL posted a gain, and the Healthcare sector was the second-best performer in the market. That’s a big shift for a group that has been stuck in neutral since the spring.

Sentiment is still cautious, and valuations stay unusually low. Yet we are now seeing early signs the tide may be turning. Warren Buffett recently added to UnitedHealth, which helped spark interest across managed care. We also saw new “Made in America” pharma announcements get a much stronger reaction in late September than earlier in the year. Markets paying attention again is a good sign.

Even more encouraging, strong earnings are finally being rewarded. Companies like Intuitive Surgical and Regeneron posted solid results and saw their stocks follow through to the upside. Earlier this year, good news often got ignored. That shift matters.

Volatility across the sector has also picked up, which gives our covered-call strategy more income opportunities.

Outlook | Healthcare is still overlooked, but catalysts are starting to matter again, and fundamentals are being rewarded. The sector feels like it is rebuilding its footing as we approach the final weeks of 2025.

Harvest Brand Leaders Plus Income ETF

HBF posted positive returns in October along with large cap U.S. indexes.  Factors that impacted the ETF’s investments during October included:

• • Optimism stemming from resumption of the interest rate cutting cycle in September by the Federal Reserve continued in October following a second rate cut.
  • Investors continued to rally behind AI investment themes
  • Shares of Caterpillar continued to rally following strong earnings driven by demand for backup power generation equipment for AI data centers.
  • Alphabet Inc. stock extended its rally following strong earnings results while consumer Staples stocks continued to underperform broader markets.

The ETF maintained its covered call strategy, as it continues its focus on balancing income generation with participation in equity upside.  The ETF was rebalanced during the month of October with no name changes to portfolio.

Outlook | Ongoing tariff uncertainty and macroeconomic concerns have kept markets volatile | Equal weight and specific value-, quality- & yield-based financial metrics can help in current environment with ongoing rotations.

Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF

HTA posted positive return in October as investors continued to rally around the AI investment theme. Overall, technology stocks led the broader market in October as stocks continued the rally off the April market lows. Stocks within Semiconductor and Hardware continued lead the sector as the largest perceived beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investments over the intermediate term.

Within the portfolio, memory semiconductor producer Micron Technology rose sharply along with Broadcom and semiconductor equipment manufacturer Applied Materials, while shares of Oracle fell as investors questioned the company’s ability to ETF the level of capex needed to satisfy needs for infrastructure-as-a-service commitments.

HTA uses covered calls to generate income while remaining positioned to capture growth potential in leading tech names.  The ETF was rebalanced during the month of October.  The ETF’s position in software provider Synopsis Inc. was eliminated and a position in semiconductor developer Advanced Micro Devices was added.

Outlook | AI-driven tech demand continues | Equal weight can help to avoid over concentration I HTA is positioned in large-cap tech leaders and writes call options to support steady income.

Harvest Equal Weight Global Utilities Income ETF

HUTL return was positive for October, mimicking the broader Utilities benchmark while lagging the USD version of the benchmark related to the underlying currency performance. Outside of the volatility witnessed in April, the year 2025 has been a very positive and very steady upward trending one for Utilities stocks. For October, some of the main factors impacting the sector included:

• • Pipelines sold off on decreased sentiment in the energy space – after energy equities diverged higher from crude oil weakness over the past few months
  • Utilities sub-sector continues to see flows from both a potential cap in interest rates and positive sentiment for stocks, which have continued to trade along the “soft landing” pattern after a rate hiking cycle
  • The AI boom continues, which highlights growing electricity demand, offering a medium-term tailwind for the sector.

HUTL’s portfolio of 30 top utility, telecom, and pipeline companies offers a balance of defensive income generation while capturing potential upside. The portfolio is supported by a covered call overlay to boost monthly cash flows. The ETF will be reconstituted and rebalanced in November.

Outlook | HUTL is well-positioned in uncertain markets and for AI energy demand tailwinds I Can provide steady cash flow amidst broader macro uncertainty I HUTL remains a leading utility ETF in Canada.

Harvest Global REIT Leaders Income ETF

HGR was down for the month and trailed the REITs sub-sector, which lagged broad equity markets driven by AI-related momentum. Key performance contributors included Japanese and other Asian real estate to benchmark gains this year.

Industrial REITs continued to support results, while HGR’s defensive retail focus helped cushion volatility. However, this has weighed down year-to-date performance. In data centres, not holding Equinix hurt as it rebounded in October. Stock-specific challenges came from Unite Group, which sold off on weaker occupancy, and Alexandria, which faced sector sentiment pressure and falling occupancy.

HGR remains diversified across global REIT subsectors, balancing growth areas with value opportunities, and is scheduled for reconstitution in November.

Outlook | Global REITs face headwinds from rate concerns and macro uncertainty | HGR’s diversified tenant and lease exposure offers resilience I HGR is positioned to benefit from exposure to growth themes like data centers & online shopping trends with industrial warehouses globally.

Harvest Energy Leaders Plus Income ETF

HPF and broader Energy stocks were weaker in October. This was due to the reversal of last month’s rally in the Exploration & Production and the Energy Storage & Transport sub-segments, which outweighed the rise Equipment & Services.  Factors that weighed on the energy sector and reversed last month’s movements were:

• • Energy equities had been rising against weakness in the crude oil price throughout the summer and into last month – that divergence wore off in October as crude oil prices broke below a psychological barrier of $60/bbl, dragging sentiment and valuations lower
  • Crude oil weakness has been hampered by oversupply worries and mixed demand signals — OPEC+ continues to seek market share and has been increasing output despite concerns about offsetting demand

HPF continues to balance exposure to large-cap energy names with a covered call strategy to generate income. The ETF was rebalanced in October with current holdings satisfying the ETF criteria.

Outlook | Oil markets face macro and supply-side instability | HPF retains quality energy names aligned with long-term capital discipline and yield strength.

Harvest US Bank Leaders Income ETF

HUBL fell modestly during October following several months of strong returns.  Banks were generally weak during the month, with regional banks continuing to lag their universal bank peers.  While credit quality has generally remained strong as of the latest quarter, lingering concerns with regards to the economy offset the benefit of a steepening yield curve to traditional banking operations.  Shares of the mega-cap universal banks have continued to outperform regionals in large part due to strong performance from their capital markets operations.

 HUBL maintains a covered call strategy for income. It remains positioned to benefit from renewed investor confidence in the banking sector as risks around tariffs and policy uncertainty eased.   The ETF is scheduled to be rebalanced during November.

Outlook | The US Federal Reserve Bank’s rate expectations and loan growth outlooks will shape returns | Covered calls can help manage risk in a volatile macro banking environment.

Harvest Canadian Equity Income Leaders ETF

HLIF recorded gains in October slightly outpacing the broader market, as new record highs continued to be set in Canada, but with a bit of a topping out pattern. The performance breakdown was as follows:

• • The areas of strongest performance on the month were Financials, Utilities and Telecoms
  • Energy pipelines reversed prior month gains during the month, which were hampered by energy sentiment as crude oil prices broke below $60/bbl
  • In terms of the relative outperformance versus the benchmark, having greater exposure to Insurance companies boosted total returns, along with a bigger weight to Utilities and not having exposure to the selloff in gold equities

The ETF focuses on Canada’s top dividend payers, refreshed quarterly. The portfolio’s covered call overlay can help to support stable monthly income in a mixed economic environment.

Outlook | Equal weight and dominant oligopolistic-like companies in the Canadian market | The portfolio remains focused on size & yield in domestic market I HLIF is positioned defensively and favours stable cash flow names.

Harvest Travel & Leisure Income ETF

TRVL declined for the month, even as broad stock markets gained. Factor impacting sector included:

• • Cruise lines and casinos/gaming faced turbulence in October
  • Consumer resiliency, economic data has been mixed recently and very sparse due to the US government shutdown, along with benefits running out and talk of layoffs has all weighed on travel & leisure sentiment
  • Long-term travel demand remains supported by demographic trends despite potential economic headwinds.

TRVL offers diversified exposure to top travel stocks.

Outlook | While some short-term pressure from consumer is cautionary and government shutdown injects uncertainty; the sector is well positioned to benefit from secular trends like aging demographics and resilient travel demand I The ETF is poised to benefit from renewed interest in the consumer discretionary.

Harvest Industrial Leaders Income ETF

The overall return for HIND was relatively flat in October. The sector’s performance was mixed with AI-levered names generally performing better while aerospace & defense stock returna  were also mixed.  Two holdings that stood out were:

• • Caterpillar, which continued to advance on the back of strong earnings results, while shares of UPS also rallied sharply on positive earnings; and
  • Fastenal, which underperformed in the wake of a disappointing earnings report.

HIND maintains its covered call strategy for added income while staying positioned to benefit from renewed industrial sector momentum.

Outlook | HIND remains exposed to economic cyclicals | Earnings momentum and post-selloff strength suggest resilience | Tariff tensions remain a macro headwind.

Harvest Low Volatility Canadian Equity Income ETF

HVOI posted a slight negative return in October. Market sentiment improved overall, albeit more concentrated among growth stocks, and less so on defensives. Moreover, the Fund’s exposure to Energy and Materials sector was under pressure triggered by a retreat in oil and gold.

Top contributors to the HVOI’s outcome included National Bank of Canada, Power Corp of Canda, and TD Bank, with Franco Nevada and Wheaton Precious metals detracting, driven by gold commodity price weakness.

There were no significant weighting changes in the month.  HOVI remained positioned for stability while participating in upside trends.

Outlook | Strategies focus on stable, lower risk portfolio of Canadian equities | Market turbulence expected to persist | Low-volatility profile may be timely for conservative investors.

Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF

Harvest Premium Yield 7-10 Year Treasury ETF

HPYT and HPYM total returns continued in their uptrend over the past five months including October. Once more, HPYT outperformed HPYM. This marks a second month of outperformance of long bonds versus the mid-duration bonds, as yields have trended in a similar direction and not diverged as they previously had been doing.

 For October, the ETFs were impacted by:

• • The Federal Reserve cut overnight rates for the second month in a row. The front end of the yield curve initially did move down ahead of the actual cut, but as Federal Reserve speakers pushed back on the expectations due to higher inflation concerns
  • Market expectations shifted on future cuts – one cut has almost effectively been removed from the outlook for 2026 (only a full 3 more in total now expected between now and the end of next year).
  • Long end yields have been moving with the shorter end of the curve, and that has kept the steepness of the yield curve in general alignment since April – 30-year yields minus 2 year yields sit roughly ~110 bps apart and has been steady within +/- 10 bps, as Fed Independence concerns have waned

Both ETFs use an active covered call strategy to generate income from exposure to bond market volatility, helping investors offset inflation and deliver higher real yields than traditional fixed income.

Outlook | HPYT/HPYM offer high cash flows from writing covered calls I Macro backdrop has been challenging for longer dated yields I Flexible covered call strategy helps generate cash flows.

Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF

Harvest Diversified Equity Income ETF

HDIF and HRIF delivered modest positive returns for October, as equity sentiment continued to improve with central bank rate cuts, and AI fueled enthusiasm.

Main contributors were: HTA (Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF), as well as HBF (Harvest Brand Leaders Plus Income ETF).   

Main detractors were: TRVI (Harvest Travel & Leisure Income ETF) as well as  HUBL (Harvest US Bank Leaders Income ETF), which experienced some volatility in regional banks.

There were no significant changes to ETFs.

Outlook | HRIF and HDIF remain defensively positioned with multi-sector exposure and high-income strategies to moderate risk | Existing macro and policy uncertainties justify having a diversified approach.

Harvest Balanced Income & Growth ETF

Harvest Balanced Income & Growth Enhanced ETF

HBIG and HBIE posted modest positive returns in the month, supported by rising equities, and modest positive performance in fixed income exposures as well. Top equity contributors included HTA (Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF), as well as HBF (Harvest Brand Leaders Plus Income ETF). HPYT (Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF) was a positive contributor in fixed income. HUBL (Harvest US Bank Leaders Income ETF) where there was some volatility in regional banks.

The ETFs made no significant adjustments in the month and remain focused on a well-diversified sector mix.

Outlook | Balanced equity-fixed income structure continues to help buffer downside | Enhanced income and diversification support resilience.

Harvest Global Gold Giants Index ETF

HGGG witnessed extreme swings in the month of October, with gold equities exhibiting even greater Beta to the movements of the underlying commodity price. The ETF rallied over 13% in the first half of the month, before reversing course and dropping almost 15% in the second half of the month. Net-net, returns were down over 3% on the month, but year-to-date returns still sit +120% for HGGG.

The sharp turnaround can be attributed to things like the concern over the Fed’s independence fading from the headlines for investors. A ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel in Gaza reversing some geopolitical tensions that had been building. Despite the pullback, gold is appealing as a safe-haven asset when unexpectedly needed, but also amidst sticky inflation and rising deficits.

HGGG invests equally across the world’s 20 largest gold producers, providing leverage to gold price moves and long-term diversification benefits, especially during volatile market cycles. The ETF will be reconstituted and rebalanced in November.

Outlook | Concerns around Fed Independence increased but seem to have faded from the headlines | Geopolitical noise and sticky inflation keep gold’s safe haven appeal intact | Gold producers offer upside leverage and margin strength.

Harvest Travel & Leisure Index ETF

TRVL has already hit a bit of a ceiling this year and struggled in the month of October, posting a decline for the month, even as broad stock markets gained:

• • Cruise lines and casinos/gaming stocks were broadly down on the month
  • While the consumer has been resilient, economic data has been mixed recently and very sparse due to the US government shutdown, along with benefits running out and talk of layoffs has all weighed on travel & leisure sentiment
  • Long-term travel demand remains supported by demographic trends despite potential economic headwinds.

TRVL offers diversified exposure to top travel stocks.

Outlook | While some short-term pressure from consumer is cautionary and government shutdown injects uncertainty; the sector is well positioned to benefit from secular trends like aging demographics and resilient travel demand I The ETF is poised to benefit from renewed interest in the consumer discretionary.

Harvest Clean Energy ETF

HCLN witnessed a further very strong breakout in October despite lagging the benchmark slightly. There has been a pick-up in interest in the clean energy space in 2025, which is a welcome difference to the trend of the past four years. Some of the drivers of October performance were:

• • The gain of many clean energy stocks has been pretty apparent this year and has been following very closely with the “growth” trade, but even more particularly, has really been tied into the greater performing area of Artificial Intelligence and its subsequent record energy demand expectations
  • Additionally, there has been some chatter that the Trump administration’s crusade against renewables incentives is sparking immediate action to enact projects before loss of incentives in 2026
  • Names like EOS Energy and Fluence Energy on the Battery/Energy Storage side made outsized contributions, but numerous Solar and Wind Power Generators and Equipment/Services names all chipped in handily
  • Long-term clean energy demand underpinned by global climate goals that still require accelerated investment.

HCLN holds the 40 largest dedicated clean energy and equipment firms, equally weighted and diversified across North America, Europe, and Asia.

Outlook | Massive global clean energy investment needs remain | Long-term drivers are intact | Near-term risks and loss of incentives in the US persist under current administration.

Harvest Low Volatility Canadian Equity ETF

HVOL posted a slight negative return in October as although market sentiment improved overall, this was more directed as growth stocks, and less so on defensives. As well the ETF’s Energy and Materials sector exposure was under pressure over the month as oil and gold retreated. Top contributors to the ETFs’ outcome included National Bank of Canada, Power Corp of Canda, and TD Bank, with Franco Nevada and Wheaton Precious metals detracting, driven by gold commodity price weakness.

The portfolio made no significant weight changes in the month, following last months rebalance.  HVOL remains defensively positioned to manage risk, offering exposure to continued equity market growth and balancing stability with participation in upside trends.

Outlook | Strategies focus on stable, lower risk portfolio of Canadian equities | Market turbulence expected to persist | Low-volatility profile may be timely for conservative investors.

Blockchain Technologies ETF

October saw accelerated gains in blockchain equities, driven by sustained progress in enterprise integration, increased output by crypto miners, and the growth of decentralized infrastructure. The environment favored companies capable of leveraging their data center assets for broader applications.

Market Drivers & Holdings Analysis

A critical factor for some of HBLK’s holdings, particularly miners, was the continued narrative around the convergence of AI and blockchain. Miners like Clean Spark and Galaxy Digital have been actively diversifying power assets toward meeting the growing energy demands of AI Cloud HPC (High Performance Computing). This provided a partial counter-narrative and fundamental floor for some holdings.

Outlook | Despite macro rate uncertainty, the long-term fundamental drivers remain solid, anchored by the rapid institutional adoption of tokenization, the maturation of Web3 technologies, and the massive capital allocation toward AI infrastructure, as demonstrated by the strategic moves of core holding Oracle. HBLK provides diversified exposure to these secular growth trends.

Harvest Bitcoin Leaders Enhanced Income ETF

October saw increased swings in the valuations of crypto and blockchain related assets with bitcoin reaching all-time highs earlier in the month before retreating closer to its 200-day moving average. The period was market with extreme volatility on the fears of escalating trade war between US and China.

Key Highlights:

Adding Bullish and Robinhood diversifies the ETF by capturing the full spectrum of crypto adoption. Bullish provides exposure to institutional-grade liquidity and regulatory compliance, essential for market maturation. Robinhood offers a gateway to mass retail accessibility and high transaction volume, capitalizing on broad user engagement and mainstream adoption growth. BitFuFu was removed from the ETF due to a lack of liquidity in the options market for the name.

Outlook | The outlook for HBTE remains constructive. The ETF’s exposure to high-growth mining and infrastructure companies is well-aligned with the broader sentiment of increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Continued developments in the sector, coupled with the ETF’s active management and covered call strategy, aim to provide resilience and ongoing income generation amid potential market fluctuations.

Harvest Bitcoin Enhanced Income ETF

HBIX benefitted from Bitcoin exposure through the IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Bitcoin rallied earlier in the month alongside gold to new all-time highs before retreating sharply to its 200-day moving average. The rally was driven by a market narrative anticipating future easing from the US Federal Reserve, which boosted risk-on assets. This, combined with sustained institutional inflows via Spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaled strong fundamental demand.

Harvest Diversified High Income Shares ETF

HHIS performed well in the month of October on a net asset value (NAV) basis, supported by strong gains in technology stocks amid AI momentum, improving sentiment from Federal rate cuts, and solid earnings.

Key contributors to HHIS’s momentum included AMDY (invested in AMD), GOGY (invested in Alphabet), and AVGY (invested in Broadcom), with AMD rising on a new partnership with OpenAI. Meanwhile, detractors included MSTE (invested in MicroStrategy) amid Bitcoin volatility and METE (invested in Meta).

Option premiums remained robust, with covered call writing around a 33% level. Coverage was increased on LLYH/LLHE (invested in Eli Lilly) and MSTY/MSTE (invested in MicroStrategy) to support distributions. HHIS also added new positions in RDDY (invested in Reddit), HODY (invested in Robinhood), CRCY (invested in Circle), and SOFY (invested in SoFi), with plans to build exposure further.

Outlook | HHIS continues to deliver diversified, enhanced income from high-growth U.S. stocks.

Harvest Canadian High Income Shares ETF

HHIC had a solid month, supported by improving equity market sentiment following rate cuts in Canada and the U.S.

Positive contributors included Cameco, which gained on news of a strategic partnership with Brookfield and the U.S. government, and Shopify, which benefitted from strength in the IT sector.

Detractors included TELUS and Enbridge. Corresponding single-stock ETFs CCOE (invested in Cameco) and SHPE (invested in Shopify) performed well, while TEHE (invested in TELUS) and ENBE (invested in Enbridge) fell. Option premiums remained strong, with covered call writing around a 33% level.

Outlook | HHIC continues to provide diversified, enhanced income exposure to leading Canadian equities, while its single-stock ETFs offer concentrated exposure and high monthly income potential.

Disclaimer

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investing in Harvest Exchange Traded Funds (managed by Harvest Portfolios Group Inc.). The funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Please read the relevant prospectus before investing. Tax, investment and all other decisions should be made with guidance from a qualified professional.

Certain statements in this commentary are forward looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what the portfolio manager believes to be reasonable assumptions, the portfolio manager cannot assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. Unless required by applicable law, Harvest Portfolios Group Inc. does not undertake, and specifically disclaim, any intention or obligation to update or revise any FLS, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise.